China Trade Predated Philippine Colonizers

President Duterte's pivot to China as part of his more independent foreign policy is generally aimed at reviving centuries old trade relationship with the now second largest economy in the world. The Philippine-China trade connections in the past have flourished and waned, but when fully restored would greatly contribute in hastening the growth and maturity of the Philippine economy.

Trade contacts between Filipino and Chinese businessmen actually predated the arrival of Spanish colonizers in the Philippines. In a Philippine Studies prepared by Ateneo de Manila University, it was cited that these peoples traded as early as the 10th century. Early trading sites were traced not only at Paranaque in Metro Manila but also in such places as Calatagan in Batangas, Jolo in Sulu and in Pangasinan among others. Included in the traded products were porcelain, cloth, pearl, tools and other goods made of metals such as gold and iron. The trading activities flourished during the Tang Dynasty and lasted until the 14th century and the subsequent arrival of the Spaniards in the Philippine Archipelago. The golden age of Philippine-China trade indeed peaked during the Spanish colonization - for its having been a component of the Spanish Galleon Trade between Manila and Acapulco, Mexico.

China's role as a major trading partner of Filipinos slowly waned during the American colonization of the Philippines. During the period, Philippine industries were developed in order to meet American demand for goods such as sugar, tobacco, metal and wood products, grains and hemp among others. At the same time, the Filipinos were introduced by the Americans to western goods and products. The new arrangement ultimately resulted into the complete pivot of Philippine trade towards the West, which persisted until after the US granted independence to the Philippines.

Because of the Philippines' trade focus to the West, the opportunities presented by China's rise early in the 21st century as the world's second largest economy were neglected. For decades, the vast China market was largely unexploited by the Philippines, and, their bilateral trade lagged behind China's trade with other Southeast Asian countries. Duterte's rise to the Presidency this year finally recognized the necessity of distancing from the Philippine trade dependency to Western states in order to attain greater economic growth. While this move is suspected by some quarters as a sign of changing Philippine alliances, common sense dictates that Duterte is only opting for what is best for his country.

By looking back at the history of the country, the new Philippine leadership now sees a very promising route in charting a flourishing future. The road maybe paved with thorns, but Duterte believes it's better than one adorned with American roses that may lead to perdition. After all, if his Western Allies are sincere friends and would extend support, his chosen route could only broaden and strengthen all relationships and alliances.

American Geopolitics Rewrites Philippine History

The United States, as the world's most powerful country plays a major role in writing global history. This nation puts pressures on how world events are written, to favor its geopolitical aims and purposes supported by its vast infrastructures in media and communications, diplomatic clout, economic prowess, military might and other advantages. For instance, since the 1898 Treaty of Paris, the US has done a great deal in influencing how Philippines history was recorded.

It is more familiar that the Philippines became a US colony by virtue of the 1898 Treaty of Paris ending the Spanish-American War. But its just the icing on the cake. Truth is the Philippines became a US colony by conquest of the Filipinos by the Americans. Note that the Treaty of Paris was signed while the Philippine Revolution against Spain was ongoing where the former was winning. Very few are aware of the fact that the Americans were actually attracted by the commercial and future political values of the Philippine Islands, that after the Treaty of Paris, the US tricked General Emilio Aguinaldo into believing that the Americans are coming only as an end to Spanish-American War. In other words, the May 1, 1898 Battle of Manila Bay between the US and Spanish fleets was a prearranged quasi duel between the attacking Americans and withdrawing Spaniards to dupe the Filipino revolutionaries and let the Americans land in Manila. By later treachery that surprised the Filipinos, the Americans started the conquest of the Philippines and the subsequent Filipino-American War at Pinaglabanan Bridge that separated the Philippine revolutionaries from their American guests. From then, the Americans had to employ more double talks to appease the Filipinos, end the Fil-Am War, colonize and exploit the Philippines.

Fast forward to the present , American geopolitics is still blurring how Philippine events are presented to the world. Having been used to meddling in Philippine affairs, the US felt threatened when President Duterte announced the pursuit of a more independent foreign policy. To counter the evolving risks to US pivot to Asia, the Americans applied pressure to Duterte by condemning alleged human rights violations in his anti illegal drug campaigns. This meddling angered Duterte who retaliated by bad mouthing his critics and threatening his alliance with the US. Truly hurt, Duterte would not stop his tirades, but what is surprising now is how the US succeeds in slowly making it appear that the continuing spat arises from Duterte's stated intention to break alliance with the Americans, and not because of the US meddling with his anti illegal drug campaign!

The US next increased pressure to Duterte by threatening to cut military and developmental aids at which Duterte replied by daring the Americans to do as they wish. These days, what is being written is Duterte's being ungrateful to Western aids when in fact his anger is towards the US carrot and stick policy!


The list of twisted story telling of history will continue as long as the geopolitical agendas of powerful nations are served. When the smoke of the contention settles, falsehood may be written as truth and vice versa. But sometime, the story must end and the protagonists must either win or lose.
And perhaps,

US geopolitics must not underestimate in writing the Philippines and Duterte's history.

The US 'Carrot and Stick', Duterte and South China Sea

Since regaining independence after being a US colony, the Philippines has remained a dedicated US ally. The security alliance between the two countries endured through the Mutual Defense Treaty, a military partnership which evolved from their common undertakings in World War II. Securing independence from the US immediately after the war, however, was a Philippine dilemma. Its then capital Manila, which was the second most devastated city in the world during the war, needed massive reconstruction and the Philippines was left by America to fend for itself. The US instead focused its recovery assistance to its occupied Japan, and, freed the Philippines assured only of external security in their Mutual Defense Treaty. This plight forced the newly independent but weak former US colony to accede to the American carrot and stick.

Through the succeeding decades the country's economy, which was still primarily controlled by the Americans flourished, and was considered Asia's second best next only to Japan. At the same time, a succession of Philippine leaders failed to develop independent foreign policy and relied heavily on its allince with the US. The Philippines exploitation by the US and the latter's carrot and stick policy continuously weakened the country until the turn of the century. These must be done by the Americans in order to perpetrate their influences, which are necessary to promote their geopolitical interests. Consequently, the Philippines failed to mature as a truly independent state.

Then came Duterte, a wily tough talking Philippine President who was imbued with nationalist ideas never shown by his predecessors. Knowing that the Philippine maturity as a nation can be attained only thru a truly independent foreign policy, he assumed the Presidency as the South China Sea disputes worsened. As a lawyer, Duterte was very knowledgeable of the intricacies of the Philippine
issues with China, wherein his country's main concern was its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The turning point in the now uneasy US-Philippine relations came about when The Hague Arbitration Court ruled in favor of the Philippines. While aware that the United Nations could not enforce The Hague judgement against China, Duterte also knew that he can't use force, and, the only way to prod China to respect the award and at the same time maintain peace was through bilateral negotiation. This however is a process which the US disliked primarily because it preferred multi-lateral talks where as a party, it can raised freedom of navigation issues with China. To press her will, the US decided to deplore Duterte's domestic policy - primarily alleged human rights violations in the Philippines anti illegal drug campaigns - thinking perhaps that Duterte was guilty and could be cowed. This US censure of Duterte  became louder in public. Together with verbal condemnation from UN rapporteurs, American media and western allies, US President Obama warned Duterte about human rights issues just before the last ASEAN Summits. These did not sit well with the Philippines President who fumed at the apparent meddling and fought back with outbursts against Obama, the UN, US media and every US western ally that joined the fray. The verbal barrage from Duterte even got worse when the US tried to play carrot and stick again.

All along the exchange of arguments, Duterte made assurance that he would respect the Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and the Philippines, but declared his intention to develop closer economic relationship with both China and Russia. These were looked upon with distrust by the Americans because Duterte followed up his outburst with threat of ending his country's other military arrangements with America. The US and its western Allies countered with threats of developmental aid withdrawals which were belittled by Duterte, claiming at the same time that the Philippines can survive without such aids. He also declared that he only wanted respect from America and the west for the Philippines as an independent state.

The continuing feud will put Americas pivot to Asia in peril if the US miscalculates Duterte. Put simply, the truth is Duterte can be trusted as an ally for so long as the US forgets its carrot and stick policy towards the Philippines. America must instead show unconditional support for its former colony and give due

respect to the country's independence. All the noises and relationship anxieties will perhaps only disappear if the US and its Allies would face China over their freedom of navigation issues without using the Philippines as a proxy. The Philippines triumph at The Hague is hers alone and no other country must hitch a ride.

Duterte's Foreign Policy, US and South China Sea

For ordinary folks, geopolitics in Eastern Asia this week looks like in a quandary primarily because of Duterte's earlier declaration that the Philippines was pursuing a more independent foreign policies. Although the Philippines has existing security alliances with the US, he previously talked of seeking closer ties with Russia and China. He also announced that the Philippines would no longer participate in joint patrols at the West Philippine Sea with the US, and on his recent working visit to Vietnam, he declared suspension of future joint war games between the US and the Philippines. Through all these, the US State Department simply pronounced that the US-Philippines alliance is ironclad, fanning the suspense for many. For the wily Duterte however, the opportunities are limitless along his course, but not without his usual detractors.

To understand all the goings-on, one must understand Duterte. There is no problem for those close to him who know the President, but for the naive and adversaries who are fond of prejudging his actions, they are bound to miss the boat. Put simply, the Philippines President is intelligent and has a strong personality. He is an alpha male who would not be afraid of engaging in poker play especially when he believes that he holds all the aces in his hands. Finally, he is a leader who would not enter the game without studying the players and understanding the issues at hand.

For instance, consider that the events in the South China Sea showed that the US is primarily concerned with freedom of navigation and not in China's intrusion to Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where the latter admittedly is still showing considerable restraints. On the other hand, Duterte's concern primarily is EEZ over which the Hague Arbitration Court made rulings favorable to the Philippines, but which remains unaccepted by China. With no enforcement mechanism of the rulings by the United Nations, Duterte can only either use force or diplomacy to put the decision in effect. But the Philippines is no match to China when it comes to war. The only alternative then to reap the effects of the Hague Court decision is to use diplomacy thru bilateral talks that China prefers on matters concerning EEZ. This will dismiss multilateral negotiations that the US wants, where as a party the US will surely raise freedom of navigation issues that China disliked. The bottom line is that the Philippines and the US have separate distinct issues with China, and the Philippines can play its card better in bilateral talks instead of multi-lateral negotiations. After all, the Philippines alone holds an ace in the Hague Court decision which China can respect as a signatory to UNCLOS.

From the foregoing, it can be argued that the US and its allies have to take up with China the freedom of navigation issues separately from the Philippines pursuit of the Hague Court decision. The Allies cannot ride on the Philippines won case through multilateral talks as it will only complicate matters, and worse, it will unnecessarily place the Philippines case at risk. China's restraint thru limited intrusion to Philippines EEZ on the other hand can be construed as respect to UNCLOS and indication of willingness to recognize the Philippines rights. As a rising power, China can accommodate the Philippines triumph without prejudicing its image in the eyes of the world like being seen as a bully in the South China Sea.

As to Duterte's move to open up to China and Russia, it pertains more on economic and cultural fronts. For one, tourism demand for the Philippines in Russia is growing fast. China's market remains not fully explored by Philippines businesses, while the focus these days of Chinese investors is turned  away from the Philippines for being seen as a staunch US ally. When such image is removed, a closer relationship with the two nations will boost bilateral trades and interactions that would propel faster the Philippine economy. This move can also be interpreted as a future hedge against the economic clout of western powers in the Philippines, which constantly imperil the country whenever their interests are threatened by enlightened domestic policies.

The other pronouncements of Duterte stated above should not be seen as adversarial policies that will strain US-Philippines alliance. Rather, those must be treated as utterance to reinforce his aces in a poker play. The US, its Allies, China and Russia may respond positively or negatively but the reality is Duterte just raised his ante and the rest has to either call or fold.

To sum it all, the US-Philippine security ties in fact remain ironclad. It must be understood that in their foreign relations, issues affecting the United States can not always similarly pertain to the Philippines, and vice versa. These realities require President Duterte to pursue a more independent foreign policy that should only be more beneficial to most Filipinos, first and foremost.

Duterte's Language, Doomsayers and the Philippines Now

President Duterte's colorful words and remarks in just almost three months in office have captured the world's attention in unprecedented fashion. The airtime and print space that were given to him in such a short time eclipsed those of his predecessors. In fact, some people around the world who have heard about Duterte now do not even know any of the past presidents of the Philippines or the country itself. The downside of this is that more negative than positive things were written and broadcasted about him, apart from the fact that true events in the country and the sentiments of the Filipino people were not reported fairly by the western press.

The Philippine President though does not care about his negative publicity outside of the country. He acknowledges that he does not aspire to be a statesman and only intends to serve his people in ways that he believes are best for the Philippines. He emphasizes his points of view even to the extent of using gutter language. These are tough words for the ears of double-talking foreign meddlers, but fools around the world admittedly would just jump into conclusion, to the point of condemning him without realizing that personal demeanor does not represent domestic and foreign policies. Fortunately, Duterte does not worry about foreign idiotic ideas of him.

Naturally he also has critics in the domestic front. Those are people known to be his political adversaries whose usual noise and prediction of doom are expected, and sometimes those who unwittingly express baseless opinions or erratic points of view that can be detrimental to the country's interests. For instance, there was this stock analyst at a local television program who proclaimed on air that shares of stocks in the market remained flat and were not expected to rise because of Duterte's continuous adversarial demeanor against the West. Such baseless opinion was rebuked the next day by the PSE President himself, by declaring instead that investors basically consider fundamentals, world and regional trends, statistical data and profitability in making decision to invest. Fact really is, the Philippine Stock market remains one of the most attractive and stable in the region.

The Philippines today is one of the most peaceful and economically flourishing countries in the region. In fact, when some Western states issued travel advisories against travel to Mindanao after the isolated bombing of Davao city, bombs instead exploded in New York and New Jersey, there was terrorist stabbing in Minnesota and there were violent protests in Charlotte, NC in the US. Terrorism is unabated in the Middle East and Africa while in the southern Philippines, 21 Abu Sayyaf terrorists recently surrendered, terrorist captives are being released one by one and the rest of the terrorists themselves are being decimated. Peace deals with rebels are in process. Tourism keeps rising. On investment, Spain and Japan are quietly placing stakes while the government's mega infrastructure programs are taking off. Institutional reforms are taking place while business policies are streamlined. Most importantly, the vast majority of Filipinos now trust the government and their leaders especially President Duterte, and, are in approval of transpiring change and reforms.

This is indeed the opportune time to know the real friends of the Philippines in the face of geopolitics. Put simply, friends show support instead of unfounded criticisms during times of need.
For sure, President Duterte is bound to know the 'double talking' parties. God bless the Philippines.

US Imperialism, The Philippines and Duterte

The rise of the United States as the top world superpower started with the1898 Treaty of Paris that ended the Spanish-American War, and, where Spain ceded all its colonies including the Philippines to the former.

Before the treaty was signed, the Philippine Revolution against Spain was ongoing and the Americans could have just turned down transfer of the Philippine Islands and let the Filipinos find their own destiny. But the Americans were attracted by the commercial opportunities at hand and for the chance of acquiring a colony in Asia. In order therefore to appease concerns at home against colonialism, the US government through the US military force in the Far East fabricated reports that justified the acquisition of the Philippines. In the end, $20 million were paid by the US to Spain for the transfer of the islands and inclusion of the transaction in the 1898 Treaty of Paris. This ultimately led to the Philippine-American War and subsequent colonization by the US of the Philippine Islands.

It took more than four decades under American stewardship before the Philippines gained independence from direct American rule. Since then, while the United States treated the country as an independent state, the US political, economic and military clout over the Philippines have remained. This is because admittedly, the succession of Philippine Presidents that ruled the country remained subservient to American geopolitical policies.

In June this year, Rodrigo Roa Duterte took over as Philippines President. While not a national political personality before election, Duterte won the Presidency overwhelmingly. He gained supporters by espousing a platform of change in almost everything that Filipinos are tired of. Barely more than two months into office, Duterte was enjoying the trust of 92%

of the populace.

As a strong and colorful leader, President Duterte's policies are giving alarm signals to people with vested interests to protect, but who are used to past presidential politics. His campaigns against illegal drugs and criminality are attracting negative prejudgement from human rights groups who know nothing about the true events in the Philippines. His announcement of pursuing an independent foreign policies is making the US and other allies uneasy, although such discomforts are arising only from his personal demeanor and not from carrying out official policies. There are other noises from adversaries and yet for the great majority of Filipinos, Duterte is their ultimate hope for lasting positive changes in the Philippines. They are convinced of their President's sincerity to carry on with his election campaign platform as can be seen is his accomplishments during his first few months in office. After all, Duterte has stated that his life, name, honor and even the Presidency itself, are at stake in carrying out his official actions. God bless the Philippines and the President.

A Brave Forcast For Philippine Economy Under Duterte

The resiliency of the Philippines economy is already a fact. Blessed with the election of Duterte as President, the country now has a leader that can truly transform it into economic maturity.

The Philippines economy was indeed already primed for phenomenal take-off at the end of Arroyo's Presidency. The rise was only stalled by the indecisiveness of the Aquino Presidency to implement programmed mega infrastructure projects, institute reforms and to eradicate corruption. A strong leader with sincere political will like Duterte as President can make the difference.

Barely less than three months as President, Duterte has undertaken a no nonsense campaigns against corruption in government, criminality, illegal drugs and favor seeking oligarchy. He instituted reforms in the bureaucracy to fight smuggling, illegal mining and fishing and to hasten transactions with government agencies. He called for immediate implementation of long stalled infrastructure projects including in finding a solution to the worsening traffic problems in Metro Manila. He is modernizing the AFP and PNP to strengthen both internal and external security. And many more.

Now consider that the Philippines is expected to register exports of around $50billion and imports of nearly $60billion in 2016. Put into the picture too the estimated OFW earnings of around $26billion and BPO industry income of not less than $26billion this year and readily a net foreign exchange surplus of a little less than $40billion can be attained! This in layman's view is equivalent to having earned that much in exporting A BILLION BARRELS OF OIL at current prices this year alone. And such doesn't include yet possible foreign exchange earnings from tourism and multi-national casinos that are newly opened. Surely there will be strong economic fundamentals, even without discussing other relevant factors, to support a boom in the country's economy.

Everything bodes well for the Philippines, and most Filipinos love President Duterte for displaying a leadership prowess and tenacity reminiscent of Lee Kwan Yew. While declaring an independent foreign policy, allied nations must not look upon it as a threat to existing security arrangements. It must instead be viewed as an attempt by Duterte to make the Philippines able to stand alone economically prosperous and externally secured, that in turn will further strengthen existing alliances. The bottom line is there's no other possibility for the Philippines but to rise wonderfully as a nation under Duterte.