The US 'Carrot and Stick', Duterte and South China Sea

Since regaining independence after being a US colony, the Philippines has remained a dedicated US ally. The security alliance between the two countries endured through the Mutual Defense Treaty, a military partnership which evolved from their common undertakings in World War II. Securing independence from the US immediately after the war, however, was a Philippine dilemma. Its then capital Manila, which was the second most devastated city in the world during the war, needed massive reconstruction and the Philippines was left by America to fend for itself. The US instead focused its recovery assistance to its occupied Japan, and, freed the Philippines assured only of external security in their Mutual Defense Treaty. This plight forced the newly independent but weak former US colony to accede to the American carrot and stick.

Through the succeeding decades the country's economy, which was still primarily controlled by the Americans flourished, and was considered Asia's second best next only to Japan. At the same time, a succession of Philippine leaders failed to develop independent foreign policy and relied heavily on its allince with the US. The Philippines exploitation by the US and the latter's carrot and stick policy continuously weakened the country until the turn of the century. These must be done by the Americans in order to perpetrate their influences, which are necessary to promote their geopolitical interests. Consequently, the Philippines failed to mature as a truly independent state.

Then came Duterte, a wily tough talking Philippine President who was imbued with nationalist ideas never shown by his predecessors. Knowing that the Philippine maturity as a nation can be attained only thru a truly independent foreign policy, he assumed the Presidency as the South China Sea disputes worsened. As a lawyer, Duterte was very knowledgeable of the intricacies of the Philippine
issues with China, wherein his country's main concern was its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The turning point in the now uneasy US-Philippine relations came about when The Hague Arbitration Court ruled in favor of the Philippines. While aware that the United Nations could not enforce The Hague judgement against China, Duterte also knew that he can't use force, and, the only way to prod China to respect the award and at the same time maintain peace was through bilateral negotiation. This however is a process which the US disliked primarily because it preferred multi-lateral talks where as a party, it can raised freedom of navigation issues with China. To press her will, the US decided to deplore Duterte's domestic policy - primarily alleged human rights violations in the Philippines anti illegal drug campaigns - thinking perhaps that Duterte was guilty and could be cowed. This US censure of Duterte  became louder in public. Together with verbal condemnation from UN rapporteurs, American media and western allies, US President Obama warned Duterte about human rights issues just before the last ASEAN Summits. These did not sit well with the Philippines President who fumed at the apparent meddling and fought back with outbursts against Obama, the UN, US media and every US western ally that joined the fray. The verbal barrage from Duterte even got worse when the US tried to play carrot and stick again.

All along the exchange of arguments, Duterte made assurance that he would respect the Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and the Philippines, but declared his intention to develop closer economic relationship with both China and Russia. These were looked upon with distrust by the Americans because Duterte followed up his outburst with threat of ending his country's other military arrangements with America. The US and its western Allies countered with threats of developmental aid withdrawals which were belittled by Duterte, claiming at the same time that the Philippines can survive without such aids. He also declared that he only wanted respect from America and the west for the Philippines as an independent state.

The continuing feud will put Americas pivot to Asia in peril if the US miscalculates Duterte. Put simply, the truth is Duterte can be trusted as an ally for so long as the US forgets its carrot and stick policy towards the Philippines. America must instead show unconditional support for its former colony and give due

respect to the country's independence. All the noises and relationship anxieties will perhaps only disappear if the US and its Allies would face China over their freedom of navigation issues without using the Philippines as a proxy. The Philippines triumph at The Hague is hers alone and no other country must hitch a ride.