Duterte's Foreign Policy, US and South China Sea

For ordinary folks, geopolitics in Eastern Asia this week looks like in a quandary primarily because of Duterte's earlier declaration that the Philippines was pursuing a more independent foreign policies. Although the Philippines has existing security alliances with the US, he previously talked of seeking closer ties with Russia and China. He also announced that the Philippines would no longer participate in joint patrols at the West Philippine Sea with the US, and on his recent working visit to Vietnam, he declared suspension of future joint war games between the US and the Philippines. Through all these, the US State Department simply pronounced that the US-Philippines alliance is ironclad, fanning the suspense for many. For the wily Duterte however, the opportunities are limitless along his course, but not without his usual detractors.

To understand all the goings-on, one must understand Duterte. There is no problem for those close to him who know the President, but for the naive and adversaries who are fond of prejudging his actions, they are bound to miss the boat. Put simply, the Philippines President is intelligent and has a strong personality. He is an alpha male who would not be afraid of engaging in poker play especially when he believes that he holds all the aces in his hands. Finally, he is a leader who would not enter the game without studying the players and understanding the issues at hand.

For instance, consider that the events in the South China Sea showed that the US is primarily concerned with freedom of navigation and not in China's intrusion to Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where the latter admittedly is still showing considerable restraints. On the other hand, Duterte's concern primarily is EEZ over which the Hague Arbitration Court made rulings favorable to the Philippines, but which remains unaccepted by China. With no enforcement mechanism of the rulings by the United Nations, Duterte can only either use force or diplomacy to put the decision in effect. But the Philippines is no match to China when it comes to war. The only alternative then to reap the effects of the Hague Court decision is to use diplomacy thru bilateral talks that China prefers on matters concerning EEZ. This will dismiss multilateral negotiations that the US wants, where as a party the US will surely raise freedom of navigation issues that China disliked. The bottom line is that the Philippines and the US have separate distinct issues with China, and the Philippines can play its card better in bilateral talks instead of multi-lateral negotiations. After all, the Philippines alone holds an ace in the Hague Court decision which China can respect as a signatory to UNCLOS.

From the foregoing, it can be argued that the US and its allies have to take up with China the freedom of navigation issues separately from the Philippines pursuit of the Hague Court decision. The Allies cannot ride on the Philippines won case through multilateral talks as it will only complicate matters, and worse, it will unnecessarily place the Philippines case at risk. China's restraint thru limited intrusion to Philippines EEZ on the other hand can be construed as respect to UNCLOS and indication of willingness to recognize the Philippines rights. As a rising power, China can accommodate the Philippines triumph without prejudicing its image in the eyes of the world like being seen as a bully in the South China Sea.

As to Duterte's move to open up to China and Russia, it pertains more on economic and cultural fronts. For one, tourism demand for the Philippines in Russia is growing fast. China's market remains not fully explored by Philippines businesses, while the focus these days of Chinese investors is turned  away from the Philippines for being seen as a staunch US ally. When such image is removed, a closer relationship with the two nations will boost bilateral trades and interactions that would propel faster the Philippine economy. This move can also be interpreted as a future hedge against the economic clout of western powers in the Philippines, which constantly imperil the country whenever their interests are threatened by enlightened domestic policies.

The other pronouncements of Duterte stated above should not be seen as adversarial policies that will strain US-Philippines alliance. Rather, those must be treated as utterance to reinforce his aces in a poker play. The US, its Allies, China and Russia may respond positively or negatively but the reality is Duterte just raised his ante and the rest has to either call or fold.

To sum it all, the US-Philippine security ties in fact remain ironclad. It must be understood that in their foreign relations, issues affecting the United States can not always similarly pertain to the Philippines, and vice versa. These realities require President Duterte to pursue a more independent foreign policy that should only be more beneficial to most Filipinos, first and foremost.

Duterte's Language, Doomsayers and the Philippines Now

President Duterte's colorful words and remarks in just almost three months in office have captured the world's attention in unprecedented fashion. The airtime and print space that were given to him in such a short time eclipsed those of his predecessors. In fact, some people around the world who have heard about Duterte now do not even know any of the past presidents of the Philippines or the country itself. The downside of this is that more negative than positive things were written and broadcasted about him, apart from the fact that true events in the country and the sentiments of the Filipino people were not reported fairly by the western press.

The Philippine President though does not care about his negative publicity outside of the country. He acknowledges that he does not aspire to be a statesman and only intends to serve his people in ways that he believes are best for the Philippines. He emphasizes his points of view even to the extent of using gutter language. These are tough words for the ears of double-talking foreign meddlers, but fools around the world admittedly would just jump into conclusion, to the point of condemning him without realizing that personal demeanor does not represent domestic and foreign policies. Fortunately, Duterte does not worry about foreign idiotic ideas of him.

Naturally he also has critics in the domestic front. Those are people known to be his political adversaries whose usual noise and prediction of doom are expected, and sometimes those who unwittingly express baseless opinions or erratic points of view that can be detrimental to the country's interests. For instance, there was this stock analyst at a local television program who proclaimed on air that shares of stocks in the market remained flat and were not expected to rise because of Duterte's continuous adversarial demeanor against the West. Such baseless opinion was rebuked the next day by the PSE President himself, by declaring instead that investors basically consider fundamentals, world and regional trends, statistical data and profitability in making decision to invest. Fact really is, the Philippine Stock market remains one of the most attractive and stable in the region.

The Philippines today is one of the most peaceful and economically flourishing countries in the region. In fact, when some Western states issued travel advisories against travel to Mindanao after the isolated bombing of Davao city, bombs instead exploded in New York and New Jersey, there was terrorist stabbing in Minnesota and there were violent protests in Charlotte, NC in the US. Terrorism is unabated in the Middle East and Africa while in the southern Philippines, 21 Abu Sayyaf terrorists recently surrendered, terrorist captives are being released one by one and the rest of the terrorists themselves are being decimated. Peace deals with rebels are in process. Tourism keeps rising. On investment, Spain and Japan are quietly placing stakes while the government's mega infrastructure programs are taking off. Institutional reforms are taking place while business policies are streamlined. Most importantly, the vast majority of Filipinos now trust the government and their leaders especially President Duterte, and, are in approval of transpiring change and reforms.

This is indeed the opportune time to know the real friends of the Philippines in the face of geopolitics. Put simply, friends show support instead of unfounded criticisms during times of need.
For sure, President Duterte is bound to know the 'double talking' parties. God bless the Philippines.

US Imperialism, The Philippines and Duterte

The rise of the United States as the top world superpower started with the1898 Treaty of Paris that ended the Spanish-American War, and, where Spain ceded all its colonies including the Philippines to the former.

Before the treaty was signed, the Philippine Revolution against Spain was ongoing and the Americans could have just turned down transfer of the Philippine Islands and let the Filipinos find their own destiny. But the Americans were attracted by the commercial opportunities at hand and for the chance of acquiring a colony in Asia. In order therefore to appease concerns at home against colonialism, the US government through the US military force in the Far East fabricated reports that justified the acquisition of the Philippines. In the end, $20 million were paid by the US to Spain for the transfer of the islands and inclusion of the transaction in the 1898 Treaty of Paris. This ultimately led to the Philippine-American War and subsequent colonization by the US of the Philippine Islands.

It took more than four decades under American stewardship before the Philippines gained independence from direct American rule. Since then, while the United States treated the country as an independent state, the US political, economic and military clout over the Philippines have remained. This is because admittedly, the succession of Philippine Presidents that ruled the country remained subservient to American geopolitical policies.

In June this year, Rodrigo Roa Duterte took over as Philippines President. While not a national political personality before election, Duterte won the Presidency overwhelmingly. He gained supporters by espousing a platform of change in almost everything that Filipinos are tired of. Barely more than two months into office, Duterte was enjoying the trust of 92%

of the populace.

As a strong and colorful leader, President Duterte's policies are giving alarm signals to people with vested interests to protect, but who are used to past presidential politics. His campaigns against illegal drugs and criminality are attracting negative prejudgement from human rights groups who know nothing about the true events in the Philippines. His announcement of pursuing an independent foreign policies is making the US and other allies uneasy, although such discomforts are arising only from his personal demeanor and not from carrying out official policies. There are other noises from adversaries and yet for the great majority of Filipinos, Duterte is their ultimate hope for lasting positive changes in the Philippines. They are convinced of their President's sincerity to carry on with his election campaign platform as can be seen is his accomplishments during his first few months in office. After all, Duterte has stated that his life, name, honor and even the Presidency itself, are at stake in carrying out his official actions. God bless the Philippines and the President.

A Brave Forcast For Philippine Economy Under Duterte

The resiliency of the Philippines economy is already a fact. Blessed with the election of Duterte as President, the country now has a leader that can truly transform it into economic maturity.

The Philippines economy was indeed already primed for phenomenal take-off at the end of Arroyo's Presidency. The rise was only stalled by the indecisiveness of the Aquino Presidency to implement programmed mega infrastructure projects, institute reforms and to eradicate corruption. A strong leader with sincere political will like Duterte as President can make the difference.

Barely less than three months as President, Duterte has undertaken a no nonsense campaigns against corruption in government, criminality, illegal drugs and favor seeking oligarchy. He instituted reforms in the bureaucracy to fight smuggling, illegal mining and fishing and to hasten transactions with government agencies. He called for immediate implementation of long stalled infrastructure projects including in finding a solution to the worsening traffic problems in Metro Manila. He is modernizing the AFP and PNP to strengthen both internal and external security. And many more.

Now consider that the Philippines is expected to register exports of around $50billion and imports of nearly $60billion in 2016. Put into the picture too the estimated OFW earnings of around $26billion and BPO industry income of not less than $26billion this year and readily a net foreign exchange surplus of a little less than $40billion can be attained! This in layman's view is equivalent to having earned that much in exporting A BILLION BARRELS OF OIL at current prices this year alone. And such doesn't include yet possible foreign exchange earnings from tourism and multi-national casinos that are newly opened. Surely there will be strong economic fundamentals, even without discussing other relevant factors, to support a boom in the country's economy.

Everything bodes well for the Philippines, and most Filipinos love President Duterte for displaying a leadership prowess and tenacity reminiscent of Lee Kwan Yew. While declaring an independent foreign policy, allied nations must not look upon it as a threat to existing security arrangements. It must instead be viewed as an attempt by Duterte to make the Philippines able to stand alone economically prosperous and externally secured, that in turn will further strengthen existing alliances. The bottom line is there's no other possibility for the Philippines but to rise wonderfully as a nation under Duterte.

American Genocide in the Philippines, the Western Press and Filipino Values

Washington and the American press had it coming. Their unproven claims of extra judicial killings by the Duterte Administration pushed the Philippines President against the wall. No amount of clarification from the Philippines side could match the clout of the western press in presenting the true events in the Philippines, and Duterte could only afford to strike back. At the end of the Asean Summits, instead of sticking on to a prepared speech, he presented to the world a picture representing a sample of American atrocities committed in the Philippines.

The Bu Dajo masaccre was committed by American soldiers during the pacification campaign in Mindanao in the 1900s. Thousands of Moros in the Philippines, including women and children, were killed by American occupation forces for rejecting American rule. The Philippines was kept muted about this event (and many more like the Balangiga massacre in Samar) to foster an enduring relationship with the US. But power seems to make people feel so unblemished and forthright even to the point of unfairly destroying other peoples' values.

The western press is so used to impose their preconceived sentiments in their reporting. So much so that Duterte's pronouncements were immediately given print space and broadcast time in a very negative way since he became President. Yet when he presented the appalling picture at the Asean summit, everyone in the west  kept silent and mum to this day. Ashamed of the dirt on their faces brought about by the disclosure of just an incident that the Philippines kept unpublished to the world, for the sake of US-Philippines diplomacy and friendship?

Most Filipinos still value friendship with the US. All that they want this time is for everyone to give their President a chance to lead their country in accordance with their sovereign will, because the people truly foresee a stronger and a more prosperous country under their new President. The Philippines now simply needs more support than meddling in charting its destiny. When given, such will go  a long way in truly preserving a rock solid US-Philippines alliance.

Duterte and the Rebirth of Nationalism in the Philippines

The die is cast. In his appearances during the presidential election campaign, what was very noticeable was the Philippine flag proudly displayed on the stage, his supporters' shirts, party logos and campaign materials.Without saying a word, it unconsciously imparted love of country to onlookers. This was a complete turnaround from the visual fatigue brought about by the fascist yellow ribbon insignia that was made famous by the EDSA Revolt, and worn by the Aquinos and their subordinates even during official government functions. Showing the Philippine flag was also a step ahead by Duterte from the 'I don't care about the flag' attitude or 'I simply missed it' stance of other candidates. Such display of nationalism helped Duterte gain massive followers. The election result, an overwhelming victory over the closest opponent of the now Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, was the undeniable proof of acceptance by Filipinos of his election platform that projected a great deal of nationalistic fervor.

Barely more than 2 months into his Presidency, a great sense of nationalism is taking root among Filipinos who are inspired by their tough talking yet politically sincere President. As results, peace deals with the major rebel groups are on the works, the West Philippine Sea dispute with China is now being handled with priority to Philippine interests, a bigger budget for modernizing the armed forces (AFP) and police (PNP) was earmarked, there is more attention to the welfare of overseas Filipino workers, anti-corruption and criminality campaigns are launched, and many more. Sadly, the anti-illegal drugs campaign which as of to date has more than 700 fatalities resulting from police operations, became an issue with human rights groups and some western media and political units due to their expressed claim that extra judicial killings are being undertaken by the Duterte government. This prejudgement did not augur well with the Duterte government whose image in the international community is being unjustly smeared. With limited resources, the Philippine government found it difficult to reason out against the clout of western media that almost always find it easy to report unfairly about underdeveloped countries. Thus was Duterte pushed to what he strongly believed in...my country first.

The pronouncement by the US State Department that Obama intended to take up human rights issues with Duterte during their scheduled bilateral meeting at ASEAN Summit in Laos was the last blow that the latter could take to finally cry foul. The said public announcement insinuated a prejudgement akin to those said by the UN rapporteurs, that in reaction, Duterte lambasted. As President, Duterte took it already

as an affront to the sovereignty of the Philippines.

Backed by the outpouring of strong Filipino nationalistic sentiment expressed in social media, Duterte is seemingly hardening his nationalistic posture. There is no question that this could work well for the Philippines. Yet, his recent discourse with the Obama government, while surely will not harm the solid US-Philippine alliance in the long run, calls for the Americans to take a second look or policy review in treating a 'little brother'.